Cyclerides.com
Weekly Update
7/15/09
Greetings Riders,
For those of you that are new to the
Valley, welcome to the "bowels" of a Phoenix summer. And for those
of us that have lived here for a while, we know what is coming. Scorching heat,
likely record temperatures followed by higher humidity in the mornings and
evenings with chances of monsoon storms. Just another July and August in
Southern Arizona. The problem is for us is that riding in this type of weather
pretty much sucks. If you are going to try and ride in this, which we have done,
be sure and take along two things. Number 1 is water. Don't go far on your
bike without some water to drink. You never know when you might need that for
survival. Number 2, Rain gear. Especially if you are riding up North, because it
is almost certain you will run into rain at some point of the
day.
If you love to ride and are
about to give up a weekend opportunity because of the re-entry burn
into the valley, here is another idea for you. If you are affected
by extreme temps, like most people are, put your bike on a trailer, drive to
Camp Verde, Flagstaff or Payson, and start your trip from there. You can easily
put 200-300 miles on the bike in much cooler weather, still get in a bunch
of riding and not risk heat exhaustion coming back home. And don't worry
about the ridicule from your buddies about being a "trailer queen". You will be
out putting on 300 miles while your buddies are sitting at home because
they won't want to ride in the heat, but yet won't trailer. I've personally
ridden many miles in this heat, just did it about 3 weeks ago in 110-114 for 3
hours. It can be done, however it is not real smart and not much fun. But
the older I get, the smarter I tend to think. Don't let the heat stop you, make
other arrangements. Don't cave in to peer pressure
and Don't put off a chance to ride just because of what
someone else thinks. Find YOUR way to get out and
ride. Take it from me, riding from 72 - 88 degrees in Flagstaff last
weekend was very nice. Give it a try. I think U-Haul rents bike
trailers for as little as $20-$30 per day.
(Personal
Note: Sorry if I have not gotten to reply to your
emails. Have been very busy with other business this time of year. Thanks for
your patience.)
This week I was going to present our
ride to Big Bear Lake, but Harley-Davidson's earnings were just
released today and I found the news astounding and also a reflection on just how
bad our economy is how it is affecting a giant in the motorcycle industry. I
realize not everyone rides a Harley, but it is the giant in the industry and
tends to be a good representation of what is happening in the rest of the
industry. It is almost hard to believe the decline in motorcycle sales when you
think back to the hey days of just a couple of years ago, but when you look at
almost 10% unemployment and the housing declines in price, it does start to be
expected. I think you will find this both enlightening and interesting as a look
into the near future of the giant in the manufacturing world of our
passion.
The following is taken from the
July 16th/PRNewswire-First Call:
MILWAUKEE, July 16
/PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) reported decreased
revenue, net income and diluted earnings per share for the second quarter of
2009 compared to the year-ago period.
Net income of $19.8 million
and diluted earnings per share of $0.08 were primarily affected by the planned
27.6 percent reduction in motorcycle shipments compared to the year-ago period
and by two non-cash charges related to HDFS: a $72.7 million credit loss
provision for a one-time reclassification of motorcycle loan receivables; and a
one-time $28.4 million charge to write off the total goodwill associated with
HDFS.
Worldwide retail unit
sales of new Harley-Davidson(R) motorcycles were down 30.1 percent
compared to the year-ago quarter. Retail new Harley-Davidson motorcycle sales in
the U.S. were down 35.1 percent and declined 18.2 percent in international
markets compared to last year's second quarter. Industry-wide retail sales of
heavyweight motorcycles in the U.S. declined 48.1 percent for the same
period.
"While the underlying
fundamentals of the Harley-Davidson brand remain strong and our dealers' retail
motorcycle sales declined less than our competitors, it is obviously a very
tough environment for us right now, given the continued weak consumer spending
in the overall economy for discretionary purchases," said Harley-Davidson, Inc.
President and CEO Keith Wandell.
In light of the decline in
retail motorcycle sales, the Company also lowered its 2009 shipment expectations
for Harley-Davidson motorcycles. The Company now plans to ship between 212,000
and 228,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles to dealers and distributors worldwide in
2009, or 25 percent to 30 percent fewer than the 303,479 shipped in 2008. Prior
2009 guidance was for shipments of 264,000 to 273,000 motorcycles. In the third
quarter of 2009, the Company expects to ship 52,000 to 57,000 Harley-Davidson
motorcycles.
As a result of the lowered
shipment volume, the Company will implement a further reduction this year of
approximately 700 positions in the hourly production workforce. Harley-Davidson
will also be reducing the non-production, primarily salaried headcount by an
approximate 300 additional positions, including a reduction at HDFS. The Company
plans to offer a voluntary separation incentive package to eligible salaried
employees. Earlier this year, the Company had announced workforce reductions
totaling about 1,400 to 1,500 hourly production positions in 2009 and 2010 and
about 300 non-production, primarily salaried positions.
"We continue to take these
difficult actions to manage through the current challenges and we also continue
to take major steps in creating the operational effectiveness that is essential
to our long-term future," said Wandell. "We are committed to doing what is
required to enable Harley-Davidson to operate as a competitive business and
employer over the long haul." The Company continues to expect full-year gross
margins to be between 30.5 percent and 31.5 percent.
I will link to the full
report below, but here are some interesting excerpts that I wanted to display in
the letter.
Here is a
comment that could be good for the resale value of Harley's.
Reductions in
Harley-Davidson's motorcycle shipment plans for 2009 reflect the Company's
intense focus on maintaining brand strength. "When it comes to protecting and
enhancing the brand, managing supply in line with demand is one of the most
important things we can do. We plan to ship fewer Harley-Davidson motorcycles
worldwide this year than we anticipate dealers will sell at retail," Wandell
said.
York Study
Underway.
Since the announcement of the
original consolidation plans in January, Harley-Davidson has determined that the
Company's York operations are not currently competitive or sustainable. The
Company has undertaken a "two path" study to determine whether major, additional
restructuring at York can achieve cost and efficiency targets to make the
operations viable, or alternatively, whether the Company will relocate the York
operations to another U.S. location. The Company expects to make a decision on
the status of the York operations later this year.
Sportster(R) and V-Rod(R) motorcycle
final assembly operations and V-Rod motorcycle powertrain production in Kansas
City, and production of Sportster motorcycle powertrains in Wauwatosa will be
shut down for approximately 14 weeks in 2009, including the entire fourth
quarter. The Company anticipates that other production operations will be shut
down for a total of approximately five weeks over the rest of 2009.
Motorcycle Retail
Sales
Second Quarter. During the second
quarter, worldwide retail sales of Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 30.1
percent compared to the prior-year quarter. In the U.S., retail sales of
Harley-Davidson motorcycles decreased 35.1 percent from the year-ago period.
Industry-wide retail sales of heavyweight motorcycles in the U.S. declined 48.1
percent during the quarter.
Motorcycles and Related
Products Segment
Second Quarter. Revenue from
Harley-Davidson motorcycles during the second quarter of 2009 was $808.7
million, a decrease of $375.7 million or 31.7 percent versus the same period
last year. The Company shipped 58,179 Harley-Davidson motorcycles in the second
quarter of 2009 compared to 80,326 motorcycles shipped in the year-ago period
and within the Company's guidance for this year's first quarter.
Revenue from Parts and Accessories
(P&A), which consists of Genuine Motor Parts and Genuine Motor Accessories,
totaled $231.5 million, a decrease of $34.2 million or 12.9 percent versus the
year-ago quarter. Revenue from General Merchandise, which includes MotorClothes
apparel, totaled $69.6 million, a decrease of $7.2 million or 9.4 percent from
the year-ago quarter.
This report is a sobering look at how the
entire world economy has affected many things in our life including the health
of the motorcycle industry. I don't think HD is going anywhere, but this report
shows how they are having to restructure to make it through these tough times.
And will likely come out of it stronger than ever.
Bike Nights This Week
Thursday Night
The Bike Night At The Billet
Bar.
The Billet Bar is the place to be for the Summer nights and
weekends. Set on the patio and watch the action.
Voted "BEST BIKER BAR IN PHOENIX" by New
Times. There is no better place to watch all the Bikes ride down
Scottsdale road than from The Billet Bar Patio. The Billet is
ALWAYS packed with bikes Every Day. Stop by and take a look at the New Flamed
Booths on the Paradise
Patio. The new bars front and rear provide spacious seating, fresh air
atmosphere, perfect temperature and courteous staff. The food is amazing and
always the latest in cold libations await. You can sit at the back bar and watch
your favorite TV on any of the seven big inch televisions. Play pool, listen to
the latest music and socialize. The front patio seats over 75 people and is
perfect for people watching on Scottsdale Rd. The Billet Bar is located on 3752
N. Scottsdale Rd. Check it out this Thursday night and all weekend long. Info:
at 480-941-1876. Click Here for the New
Billet Bar Page with pictures.
Next Week
July 24-26
18th
Annual Too Broke for Sturgis. Too Broke is hosted by ABATE of Arizona and is
an
Old School Biker Event that is being held for the 7th year at Mormon
Lake Lodge Campground and Arena near Flagstaff, Arizona. The 2009 event will be
an ADULT ONLY party,
attendees must be at least 18 years old to
enter. Proof of age will be required, with or without an accompanying
adult/guardian. You must be at least 21 years old to drink alcohol on premise.
Underage drinking will not be tolerated. The price of admission is $30 for the
weekend. If you are an ABATE member the weekend admission is $20. A Saturday
only day pass is available for $15. Admission includes: Live music and
camping Friday & Saturday nights, ride pins to the first 1000, Ms. Too Broke
contest, people games, bike games, bike show, poker walk, 50/50 raffle, tattoo
contest, and wet T-shirt contest, plus lots of vendors. B.Y.O.B. Packaged
liquor is available at the lodge bar and general store. Also available cabins,
RV spaces w/ hookups, restaurant, and propane. General store: groceries,
beverages & ice, coin-op showers & horseback riding. No ATM on property.
More info: 602-222-8329 or for vendor space: 520-371-1735.
Arrowhead Harley-Davidson Free Appreciation
Breakfast. Taking a ride Saturday morning? Stop by Arrowhead HD for a
free breakfast on your way out of town.
Arrowhead Harley-Davidson wants to invite EVERYONE
to a customer appreciation breakfast on the last Saturday of every month from
8:30am till 10:00 am. Join us for a FREE pancake, sausage and egg
breakfast served up by Big D's Flippin Cakes. Thank you for all your
support and business! Ride by Arrowhead Harley-Davidson the last Saturday of
Every Month for a free breakfast. Arrowhead Harley-Davidson is located at
16130 N. Arrowhead Fountain Center Dr. in Peoria. 623-247-5542.
Saturday, July 25th
Hogs and
Dogs at Buddy Stubbs Harley-Davidson. The monthly and popular Stubbs Hogs
and Dogs is not only going to Feed you, but they are going to help your safety
as a rider. Would You Know What to Do at a Motorcycle Accident Scene?
The Phoenix Fire Dept. will be here at 12 PM (indoors in our
air-conditioned showroom) showing you how you can save a biker's life! All
riders welcome! Of course, we'll also have: FREE SANDWICHES, FREE SODAS AND
WATER, BIKINI BIKE WASH FROM 11-2, MUSEUM TOURS W/BUDDY, A POOL TOURNAMENT &
15% off any general merchandise item that is RED (some restrictions apply).
Plus, your chance to win a ride-along and dinner with Phoenix Fire! ALL THIS AND
MORE STARTING AT 11 AM. www.buddystubbshd.com
Saturday, July 25th
Foothills
Chapter Ladies of Harley presents 5th Annual Ron Morrison's "Christmas in July"
Charity Ride. This ride is to benefit Sunshine Acres Children's Home.
Registration from 7am - 9am at Chandler Harley-Davidson, located at 6895
W. Chandler Blvd. in Chandler. Donations are a $10 gift card per person.
Suggested retailers are Target, Wal-Mart, McDonald's Sonic, Theatres, Bowling,
etc. Pancake Breakfast 7am until it is gone. Santa will present gift cards to
the children starting at 10am. Help us bring smiles to the faces of these
children. Refreshments to be provided by Sunshine Acres. All bikes are
welcomed.
Extras
If you missed the newsletter last week
with the announcement of the Rocky Point Rally being UN-Cancelled,
Click Here to
Read. It is on an being planned with some very cool additions
this year. More will be announced in the coming weeks. Get your passport
cards and reservations now.
Special effects people have been busy at Evian
water. This is pretty entertaining. Click Here to View.
Wonder how they did this? Click
Here for the making of the Evian Baby commercial.
Video of the Week
Ever wonder what happens when a train goes
through a tornado? Does the train win or the tornado.
This is supposedly the conclusion. Click Here to
View.
All
information in this newsletter is
Copyright © 2009 BDC Products,
LLC.
Information may be used only with permission.
All rights
reserved.